A recent article in the January 2022 edition of Work Truck Magazine highlighted an estimate from The United States Energy Information Administration regarding the future growth of the electric vehicle market. This long-term estimate extends through the next three decades. The EIA predicts the addition of light-duty electric vehicles to fleets worldwide will rise one percent each year into 2050. They estimate there will be 672 million electric vehicles in fleets.
Driving into the Future
The EIA states that light-duty vehicles (LDVs) include “the passenger, fleet cars, and trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating of less than 8,500 or exactly 8,500 pounds.” According to the statistics published in the Work Truck Magazine article, there are currently 1.31 billion gas and light-duty electric vehicles in fleets on the road. The EIA predicts that this fleet will increase to 2.21 billion by 2050. Narrowed to a percentage, these vehicles will represent 31 percent of the global fleet.
Reasons Behind the Estimated Increase in LDVs
The EIA based its estimates regarding LDVs on three factors. These include growth in the overall population over the next three decades leading to a boost in economic activity. Also, the EIA believes more private mobility options will play a part in the increase.
Will These Estimates Hold True?
Keep in mind the estimates made by the EIA depend on a few pieces of data that could experience change over such a long period of time. In other words, they are only estimates, and they are not set in stone.
The EIA is relatively certain there will be a rise in electric vehicles in the current decade. But it’s challenging to predict small and significant changes worldwide. For example, China is the largest seller of autos worldwide; however, Norway has the highest number of electric cars. Specifically, in 2020 electric vehicles composed 75 percent of all new vehicles sold in Norway.
Finally, though these are just estimates, the EIA has based its conclusions on current trends in the industry.
Credits:
https://www.worktruckonline.com/10159371/electric-vehicles-expected-to-comprise-31-of-the-global-fleet-by-2050
